• AUTOMOTIVE

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    New Energy Vehicle Parts:

    • Power Batteries: Demand continues to grow, with leading companies and well-prepared second- and third-tier enterprises holding significant development potential.
    • Electric Drive Systems: The trend towards integrated multi-in-one electric drive systems is becoming increasingly evident, presenting market expansion opportunities for relevant companies.
    • Wire Control Braking: Benefiting from the growth of new energy vehicles and the wave of intelligentization, there is considerable room for domestic substitution in this area.
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    Intelligent Components:

    • Intelligent Cockpits: The pre-installation of advanced intelligent hardware and software iteration are driving market growth, with related companies entering a period of performance explosion.
    • Intelligent Suspensions: As an important component of intelligent vehicles, the market size for intelligent suspensions is expanding rapidly.
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    Automotive Lightweighting:

    • Aluminum Alloy Die Castings: The penetration rate is increasing, leading companies are accelerating production expansion, and enterprises with economies of scale are attracting more attention.
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    Aftermarket Parts:

    • With the continuous growth of Asia’s car ownership, the automotive aftermarket (such as maintenance and replacement parts) is experiencing explosive growth, especially the potential for domestic parts to replace imported parts is huge.
  • The Continuous Growth of New Energy Vehicles

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    The global automotive market is undergoing a seismic shift towards new energy vehicles (NEVs), driven by environmental concerns, technological advancements, and supportive policies. This trend is characterized by exponential sales growth, increasing market penetration rates, and a diversification of technologies. Europe and China are currently leading the charge, with North America quickly catching up and significant potential emerging in developing nations. Battery technology advancements, particularly with solid-state batteries, are crucial in improving energy density and reducing charging times. Concurrently, the expansion of charging infrastructure is accelerating, making NEVs more practical for everyday use. Governments worldwide are implementing stringent emission standards and offering incentives to accelerate the transition. This, coupled with decreasing battery costs, is making NEVs increasingly competitive with traditional internal combustion engine vehicles in terms of total cost of ownership. The commercial sector, especially logistics and public transportation, is also experiencing significant adoption of NEVs. In summary, the global shift towards new energy vehicles is a multifaceted and dynamic process, with diverse markets embracing different technologies at varying paces, and pure electric vehicles leading the charge while other technologies like plug-in hybrids and hydrogen fuel cells are also gaining traction. This transition is reshaping the automotive landscape and paving the way for a more sustainable and efficient future.

    • Technology Roadmap Risks

    arising from competing technological pathways and innovation disruptions.

    • Technology Substitution
      • Battery Tech: LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) vs. NCM/NCA (Ternary Lithium) vs. Solid-State Batteries (R&D progress by Toyota, QuantumScape).
      • Hydrogen Fuel Cells: Potential breakthroughs in commercial vehicles (e.g., Hyundai, Weichai Power).
    • Patent Barriers: Core technologies (e.g., battery separators, chip design) controlled by a few firms, limiting competition.

    Supply Chain Security

    Vulnerabilities in sourcing critical materials and components.

    • Key Material Dependencies:
    • Geopolitical risks for lithium, nickel, and rare earths (e.g., Indonesia’s nickel export bans).
    • Semiconductor shortages (e.g., automotive-grade MCUs).

    Localized Production:

    OEMs investing in in-house battery plants (e.g., BYD, Tesla’s 4680 battery program) to mitigate risks.

    Shifts in Consumer Behavior

    Changing buyer preferences impacting demand and competition.

    Demand Fragmentation:

      • Premium EVs (smart features-driven) vs. budget models (price-sensitive).
      • Regional trends: Pure EVs favored in EU/US vs. hybrids in Southeast Asia.
    • Brand Loyalty: New entrants (e.g., Tesla’s fanbase) vs. legacy automakers (e.g., BMW’s EV transition).

    Industry Cycles & Valuation

    Maacroeconomic sensitivity and varying valuation metrics.

    Cyclicality:

      • Car sales tied to macro factors (interest rates, unemployment).
      • Inventory cycles (e.g., dealer stockpile warnings for ICE vehicles).
    • Valuation Gaps:
      • Legacy OEMs: P/E (~10x for Toyota), P/B.

    EV Startups: P

    /S (~3x for Li Auto), growth-driven metrics.